To Plea or Not To Plea? A Simple Formula

To Plea or Not To Plea?

If you're facing criminal charges, one of the most critical decisions you'll need to make is whether to take a plea deal or go to trial. This isn’t just a legal decision—it’s a personal, financial, and emotional one. That’s why it should be strategic, informed, and grounded in logic. At The Law Office of Piereth & Sheen, we use a simple formula to help clients evaluate their options clearly:

The Trial vs. Plea Formula:

Likely Sentence – State’s Best Offer = Value on the TableCompare that to:Odds of Winning at Trial + Costs of Trying

Understanding the Formula

Likely Sentence-This refers to the sentence a judge is likely to impose if you’re found guilty at trial. This is not the maximum possible penalty. Judges typically reserve maximum sentences for repeat offenders or especially serious cases. While some attorneys may use max penalties to highlight risk, the realistic sentence is usually the more relevant consideration.

State’s Best Offer- This is the plea agreement offered by the prosecution. It’s influenced by the strength of your defense, your prior record, and other personal circumstances. A well-prepared attorney can leverage legal defenses or mitigation (such as community involvement, employment, or rehabilitation efforts) to negotiate a more favorable offer.

Value on the Table- This is the difference between the likely sentence and the plea deal. If the plea offer is significantly more lenient than what you could face at trial, that value may be worth serious consideration. Additionally, the certainty of a known outcome through a plea can be appealing compared to the risk of a trial verdict.

In Illinois, a Rule 402 Conference may be available. This allows the judge to informally share insight on how they would likely sentence in a given case—an invaluable tool when weighing a plea versus trial.

Odds of Winning at Trial- Your attorney’s experience and judgment play a critical role here. They’ll assess the strengths and weaknesses of your case, the evidence, and how a judge or jury might react. While no outcome can be guaranteed, your lawyer’s analysis will help you gauge your chances.

Costs of Trying the Case- Going to trial requires additional legal fees, extensive preparation, court appearances, and often time off work for both you and any witnesses. Trials also carry higher emotional and logistical costs, and if you lose, sentencing is wide open—you could receive the maximum penalty.

Real-World Example

Consider this:

• The State offers probation on a felony.

• Your attorney estimates the judge might impose prison if you lose at trial.

• The odds of winning are 50/50.

• Trial will cost you an additional $3,000 in legal fees.

Now ask yourself: Is it worth risking prison and paying more for a 50% chance of avoiding a felony conviction? Or does it make more sense to accept the plea deal, avoid prison, but live with a felony record? Everyone’s circumstances and risk tolerance are different, but this formula helps make that decision clearer.

Why This Formula Matters

When you’re up against the criminal justice system, emotion can cloud judgment. This formula gives you a clear, logical framework for evaluating your options, factoring in both the legal and practical realities of your case. It doesn’t guarantee the right outcome, but it gives you a more informed, confident position from which to make decisions about your future.

Take Back Control of Your Case

At our firm, we believe that you should never feel powerless when facing criminal charges. Whether you’re considering a plea deal or preparing for trial, we will help you assess the risks and opportunities at every stage.

Don’t spend another day guessing what could happen. Let’s sit down, run the numbers, and chart a strategy that works for your goals—and your life. Ready to talk? Contact The Law Office of Piereth & Sheen today to schedule a consultation and take the first step toward clarity, strategy, and control.